Will the forthcoming parliamentary vote lead to the formation of a regular cabinet? What would be the chance of individual parties with a turnout of at least 50%? Which formations have a real opportunity to enter the government of the country? Political analyst Osman Oktay commented these and other topics for Iskra. bg.
He predicted to our media that „a government will be elected by the so-called parties of change, which were recognized and supported by the energy of the protest last year. You remember that the protests then had the support of 70-80% of Bulgarian citizens. After two failures of the parliament, we saw that this support is constantly increasing.„
The analyst recalled that in the regular elections on April 4 the formations in question had 92 seats. At the next election, on 11 July, they were increased by 20 to a total of 112 seats.
All the instability that we have seen recently regarding political forces and their leaders „leads to the disgust of a large part of the voters„, Mr Oktay admits.
He is of the opinion that the future cabinet will remain functioning „for almost 4 years, if there are no other cataclysms during that time“.
Which are the „parties of change“ in question that the analyst summarizes under this denominator?
„There is Such a People“ will be a partner, „Democratic Bulgaria“ and „We continue the change“ as well. Unfortunately, with a high turnout of over 55%, the “Stand up BG! We are coming!“. It will not be able to collect about 140-150 thousand votes, as many as it will need.“
What are the chances for a coalition between GERB and MRF in the current situation in our country?
Osman Oktay believes that the MRF, with their position on the Magnitsky sanctions, the nomination of Delyan Peevski in two districts, and the coverage of the Pandora investigation, put the party in extreme domestic and foreign policy isolation.
The possibility of dialogue in the legislative programme in the next parliament is completely excluded. It cannot be about talks and platforms for governance, the analyst stressed. He is more than adamant in his statements, „despite the fact that today we see that Peevski is going around the mayors of GERB and GERB are looking for a different option to get out of their isolation„.
None of the political formations wants to have anything to do with the Boyko Borissov model, Osman Oktay is sure. This total rejection came „after all the revelations that were made last year and the arrogance of Boyko Borissov in the political government.“
GERB will not be able to find partners in the next parliament and they will be as lonely as MRF, the political analyst stressed. In his words, both parties are „corrupt political formations that no one would have anything to do with in a regular parliament„. Even if they wanted to, these formations „would not have more than 90 seats“.
