The situation will worsen as soon as people come out into the parks. Major General Prof. Ventsislav Mutafchiyski predicted this at a briefing this morning on the order of Minister of Health Kiril Ananiev, authorizing visits to city parks and gardens. According to him their arguments against the ease of the measures are quite objective.
„In early April Bulgaria was moving to a relatively plateau with an almost imperceptible peak in morbidity. Then there was a decrease in the number of infected people until after Palm Sunday. Now you see where we’re going. There is no greater argument. On a weekly basis, the newly discovered cases testify to this even more firmly. However, this is for a short period of time. „
From an epidemiological point of view, any cluster of people and any prerequisite for clustering leads to a complication of the situation, Major General Prof. Mutafchiyski explained. Mutafchiysk and gave an example with Greece and Serbia:
„To be more understandable, for example, we have a more liberal way of contacting and going out. You see what the curves are. There was a complete lockdown in Greece. There are currently 11 new cases for the last 24 hours. In Serbia, an increase in mortality caused by the infection was reported, and it was announced that during the next 4 days will be completely banned from going out in any form. „
The expert explained that the movement of people in open spaces gives thеse sad results, and again gave the example of two football matches from Spain and Italy, which have clearly traceable chains – all the way to Bulgaria. In his words, disputes with the Government are on the basis that whenever measures are loosened, it should be said what the consequences might be.
„There is a very good study from Harvard where they gave an estimate of how the coronavirus will live in the future. There is a prognosis of our lives there with the peaks and downturns of the disease, where experts say that we will probably have to live this way until a vaccine or a reliable cure is invented. And yesterday we said this – still, life cannot stop, but it must be judged at what cost. The cost of any weakening of the measures will lead to an increase in morbidity. It is important for governments to find the will to stop giving back to measures, and to withhold them, while there is a downturn. „
The general also commented on another study saying the health care system should be able to take the hit of the increase in numbers because „there is no dispute“ that the number of patients will increase.
„80% of cases in our country are mild and can be treated at home. The main factor that determines the extent to which measures should be eased and how long they should be eased is the availability of beds in intensive care units concerning moderate to severe cases. That’s the principle. „
Obviously, we cannot continue living our lives within permanent constraints, but society must be absolutely prepared for this, Major General Prof. Ventsislav Mutafchiyski concluded.
