We are at the peak of the initial COVID-19 wave, said in an interview Prof. Nikolay Vitanov from the Bulgarian Academy of Science – mathematician and chief analyst at the Bulgarian coronavirus task-force.
He said the critical number of COVID infections for the national healthcare system is about 300 per day or a six-digit number in terms of total number of infected people.
Prof. Vitanov said a statistical model shows that for the period of a person contracting and recovering from the virus 1,3 people will get infected on the average, amounting to 130 people for every 100 infected. He stressed that this indicates a relatively slow pace of virus spreading which provides valuable time windows for identifying local clusters.
“If people strictly follow the restriction measures and the government remains effective at identifying and tracing clusters, the number of infected people will start stabilizing and eventually will start decreasing. This, however, calls for nationwide cooperation,” he said.
Asked whether a surge in the cases should be expected after the football game for the Cup of Bulgaria, he said that he does not expect a significant increase.
The national healthcare system remains stable for now, but this may change, he said. Hospital beds are easy to find, but finding health experts will be the true challenge, added Prof. BItanov.
The expert stressed that the initial restriction measures led to significant results, but the government will not be in the position to enforce them again with the same effectiveness.
